How OliveRadar computes its figures

Sources

OliveRadar combines official public data with what participants publish on the platform. The two are always shown separately.

• EU weekly olive-oil prices by market and category — European Commission, Agri-food Data Portal.
• EU olive-oil production and ending stocks by marketing year, with monthly production — European Commission, Agri-food Data Portal.
• Monthly Greek imports and exports of olive oil by partner country — Eurostat Comext (dataset ds-045409).
• Daily rainfall and temperature for the main growing areas — Open-Meteo (archive and forecast).
• NUTS 2021 regional boundaries — Eurostat GISCO.
• Indicative buying and selling Interests published by OliveRadar participants.

Every response received from a source is kept with its time and fingerprint, so any figure can be traced back to the original publication.

Official reference prices

Member states report a representative weekly price for each olive-oil category in their main markets, plus a national average. OliveRadar keeps the market, category, week and value exactly as published.

The EU publishes prices in €/100 kg. OliveRadar shows €/kg, dividing by 100 — €364.16/100 kg becomes €3.64/kg — and says so next to the figure.

Categories are never mixed into one price: extra virgin (acidity up to 0.8%), virgin (up to 2%) and lampante (above 2%) are separate series, as are refined and pomace oils.

A price is identified by its market, category and week. When a source corrects a value later, OliveRadar keeps the new value and the previous one, and marks the figure as revised.

Prices keep four decimals in €/kg and are shown with two; percentages keep two decimals (one for trade shares, none for % of normal rain). Rounding is half away from zero.

Weeks and marketing years

The olive-oil marketing year runs from 1 October to 30 September and is written 2026/27. Weeks run from Monday to Sunday.

A week belongs to the marketing year that contains its Thursday. Week 1 is the week whose Thursday is the first Thursday on or after 1 October.

The source sometimes numbers the week around 1 October twice or uses a week 0. OliveRadar keeps the source labels but applies the rule above, so every week is counted once.

Week-on-week and year-on-year

Week on week (WoW) compares the latest price with the previous one, if that price is at most 14 days older; otherwise the change is not available.

Year on year (YoY) compares the latest price with the same week of the previous marketing year, allowing one week either side when that exact week is missing.

Changes are shown in €/kg and in percent. A missing comparison is shown as “—”, never as zero.

Spreads

A spread is the difference between two series in the same week, in €/kg. Weeks where either side is missing are skipped.

• Greece–Spain: Chania extra virgin minus Jaén extra virgin.
• Extra virgin–Lampante: Greek national average extra virgin minus Greek national average lampante.
• Crete–Peloponnese: the mean of Chania and Heraklion minus the mean of Messinia and Laconia (extra virgin), using the markets reported that week — the app states which ones.

Seasonality

The seasonality chart overlays the last five marketing years week by week, so the current season (the bold line) can be compared with the same point of earlier seasons.

Price map

The map colours each NUTS 2021 level-3 region by the latest price of its market (within the last four weeks) and places a marker at the market.

Laconia and Messinia share one region, EL653 “Lakonia, Messinia”: both markets are listed with their own prices; the shading uses their midpoint only to colour the area.

Some markets have no exact region and are drawn lighter with a dashed outline and marked “≈”: Gioia Tauro (shown in Reggio di Calabria, ITF65), Alentejo Norte (PT186), Alentejo Sul (PT184), Ribatejo (PT185) and Trás-os-Montes (PT11E).

Some codes changed in NUTS 2021: Bari is shown in ITF47, Foggia in ITF46, Milano in ITC4C and Alentejo Central in PT187.

Production and stocks

Production and ending stocks are in thousand tonnes per marketing year as published by the Commission. Estimates are labelled until they become final; monthly figures show how the current harvest builds up.

Trade and unit values

Trade figures are Greek exports and imports by month and partner country from Eurostat Comext, in euro and kilograms.

The implied unit value is value divided by quantity (€/kg). It is an average of declared customs values, not a price quotation, and is not available when the quantity is zero or missing.

The customs codes for olive oil changed in January 2022 (CN 1509 20 00 extra virgin, 1509 30 00 virgin, 1509 40 00 other virgin including lampante), so the series start then.

Weather risk

Rainfall since 1 October is compared with the normal: the mean of the same days in earlier seasons since 2015/16, available once at least five seasons are complete. The percentage of normal is shown only when the normal is at least 50 mm; early in the season, when the normal is a few millimetres, one storm would move it by hundreds of points, so only millimetres are shown.

Heat-stress days count the days from 1 April to 30 June with a maximum temperature of 35 °C or more, around flowering, compared with the normal of earlier years.

The 16-day outlook sums the forecast rainfall and shows the highest temperature and the days at or above the threshold.

These are heuristic indicators with configurable thresholds. They do not forecast yields or prices.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com, licensed CC BY 4.0. The free Open-Meteo service is for non-commercial use; a commercial OliveRadar service uses a licensed plan or a self-hosted instance.

Market brief

The brief turns the latest facts into short sentences with fixed templates in English and Greek. A sentence appears only when all its inputs exist, and each one cites its source.

The brief contains no forecasts, no opinions and no numbers other than the published values and the documented differences between them.

Reference context for Interests

An Interest’s region is matched to the nearest EU market: exactly (for example Chania), to the closest market (for example Rethymno → Chania), or to the Greek national average.

If the matched market has no price for the category in the last six weeks, the national average is used instead, and the app says which reference was used. The difference shown is the Interest price minus the reference price.

Lab-quality check

Lab values entered with an Interest are compared with the limits of Delegated Regulation (EU) 2022/2104, Annex I. Limits are inclusive: a value equal to the limit is within it.

Values are rounded to the decimals of the limit before the comparison: an acidity of 0.804% counts as 0.80 and is within the extra virgin limit, 0.805% counts as 0.81 and exceeds it. For lampante, an acidity of 2.0% or less is reported as below the threshold rather than as a failure, because lampante can also be classified on sensory defects.

The check is informational and not a certification: the organoleptic assessment and other characteristics are not covered.

Participant layer

Prices published by OliveRadar participants are indicative, non-binding Interests. They are shown apart from official prices, per category, and never blended with them.

For each category OliveRadar shows the best buying and selling Interest, the indicative mid and gap or overlap when both sides exist, or the one-sided state. It never blends Interests into a single price: no averages across buyers and sellers and no confidence weighting.

Freshness and missing data

Each source records its last update and the period of its latest data. A source is marked late when its last successful update is older than three of its sync intervals; meanwhile the last good data stays on screen with that warning.

Nothing is estimated or carried forward: when a value is missing — a market that did not report, a week without a quote, a source that is down — OliveRadar shows “—”.

Attribution

OliveRadar reuses public data under the terms of each source and credits them wherever the data appears:

• Source: European Commission, Agri-food Data Portal
• Source: Eurostat (Comext)
• Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0)
• © EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries